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数字化转型对未来工作究竟有多大的影响 | 远景管理咨询工作室

数字化转型对未来工作究竟有多大的影响

技术的飞速进步,大数据与人工智能来袭,在快速的改变人们的生活,也在很深刻的改变劳动力市场需求,劳动者要应对数字化转型带来的影响。对劳动者而言,需要不断的提升自己的技能,以免自己在未来的技术进步中被彻底的淘汰。

过去人们普遍认为,技术的进步往往被认为是就业的杀手,如最为有名的案例是威廉·李的案例。威廉·李(William Lee)1589年发明丝袜框架针织机,希望它能减轻工人手工编织的负担。为了寻求发明的专利保护,他前往伦敦,在那里他租了一间屋子,供英国女王伊丽莎白一世观看。令他失望的是,女王更关心就业影响他的发明,并拒绝授予他专利,声称:“李师傅,你的目标很高。想想你这个发明能对我可怜的臣民做什么。这肯定会给他们带来毁灭,剥夺他们的工作,从而使他们成为乞丐。”

据世界经济论坛在2020年预测报告,第一、到2025年,8500万个工作岗位可能会因人与机器之间的劳动分工转变而消失,而9700万个新角色可能会出现,这些角色更适应人类、机器和算法之间的新劳动分工。第二、到2025年,机器和算法的能力将比往年更广泛地应用,机器执行的工作时间将与人类所花费的时间相匹配。

根据未《来的雇佣》(Frey and Osborne, 2017) 的研究结论,第一、大约47%的职业存在被计算机、人工智能、机器学习替代的风险。虽然基于大数据的复杂算法和机器学习(ML)的发展现在允许许多非常规任务实现自动化,但涉及复杂感知和操作任务,创造性智能任务和社会智能任务的领域不太可能被取代。第二、工资和教育程度与职业的计算机化概率表现出强烈的负相关关系。计算机化将主要取代低技能和低工资的工作,减少对中等收入职业的需求。相比之下,高技能和高工资的职业最不容易受到计算机资本的影响。

很多的工作类别,在技术与巨量投资的驱动下,将移动到云端,即便是目前看来需要人类灵巧的双手和准确判断的外科手术,在未来都挺有可能被机器人替代,在云端进行手术方案设计,并由机器人最终完成整个外科手术。

数字化转型也在驱动教育的转型,互联网、大数据与人工智能的发展带使信息的获取不再困难,教育正在以内容为主的讲授体系,转变为内容构建与发展的教育体系,如北欧的小学教育的改革,正在朝向这个方向迈进。

世界经济论坛在其《就业的未来》19 年报告中估计,今天进入小学的儿童中有 65% 最终将从事目前尚不存在的全新工作类型。由此,我们可以看到这一轮的技术进步,最终对劳动力市场的影响是非常深远的。

作者: 远景顾问

Business consultant, focus on improving people, process and performance.

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